By SHABAN MAKOKHA
September 25, 2026|When the first heavy drops begin to fall in October, the most important question may not be whether counties have prepared for the rain—but whether the most vulnerable families are prepared for what an increasingly unpredictable climate can bring.
For families living along rivers, farmers watching the skies, fishermen rowing their boats on Lake Victoria and artisanal miners working deep beneath the earth, the coming rains are more than a change in weather. They are a test of survival.
Across Western Kenya, Kakamega and Busia counties are stepping up preparations for the anticipated El Niño rains, with authorities strengthening early-warning systems, emergency response structures, evacuation plans and public awareness campaigns.
The two counties face different but overlapping risks, from riverine and flash floods in low-lying communities to waterlogged farms, damaged infrastructure, blocked drainage systems and heightened dangers for people living or working near rivers and mining areas.
In Busia, the most vulnerable areas include the low-lying Budalang’i plains along the shores of Lake Victoria and the River Nzoia basin, where recurrent riverine flooding has repeatedly displaced families, destroyed crops and disrupted livelihoods.
In Kakamega, flood-prone areas include Lugari, Matungu, Mumias West and Navakholo, where overflowing rivers and poor drainage can quickly turn heavy rainfall into flooding. Other areas, including Malava, Mumias East, Shinyalu, Likuyani and Ikolomani, also face risks from heavy runoff, waterlogging, swollen streams and submerged farms.
Urban centres such as Kakamega and Mumias are not spared, with blocked drainage systems and flooded streets posing additional risks during periods of intense rainfall.
Major rivers, including the Nzoia, Yala, Kipkaren and Lusumu, remain a particular concern as rainfall intensifies.
In Kakamega, the county and national governments have established a joint rapid-response El Niño coordination committee to oversee preparedness and emergency response.
The committee is co-chaired by County Secretary Lawrence Omuhaka and County Commissioner James Taari and brings together county departments, the Kenya Meteorological Department, National Environment Management Authority, Ministry of Education, Kenya Power, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, religious leaders, representatives of artisanal miners, disaster-management experts and humanitarian organisations.
Its mandate is to activate the county’s emergency operation, health emergency, disaster and contingency plans and coordinate preparedness, response and mitigation measures ahead of the rains expected from October 2026 through February 2027.
Governor Fernandes Barasa has assured residents that the county has put measures in place to protect communities and ensure emergency assistance reaches affected residents as quickly as possible.
Sub-county administrators and Deputy County Commissioners have been directed to identify and report disaster-prone locations, while departments responsible for roads, energy, public works, water, environment and climate change have been instructed to clear critical drainage systems and waterways before the rains intensify.
The Health department will activate an El Niño health preparedness and surveillance programme, with Community Health Promoters expected to disseminate public-health advisories.
The Agriculture and Livestock department will issue weather-based advisories and prepare for possible crop and livestock emergencies, while the county communication function will provide residents with timely information, alerts and warnings.
The county also plans to conduct joint simulation exercises with relevant agencies before the peak rainfall period.
A weekly El Niño preparedness and response dashboard will be submitted to the county secretary and county commissioner, with consolidated reports forwarded to the governor for further action.
But behind the official preparations is a more human story: thousands of families whose daily survival depends on farming, mining and sand harvesting are being asked to temporarily step away from activities that could expose them to danger during the rainy season.
Speaking during a press briefing, Governor Barasa urged artisanal miners in Ikolomani, Shinyalu, Lugari, Khwisero and Lurambi to suspend mining activities during periods of heavy rainfall.
Sand harvesters have also been urged to temporarily suspend their activities.
The warning is particularly significant for underground miners, where heavy rainfall can turn tunnels into death traps. As water seeps into the ground and river levels rise, unstable tunnels and riverbanks can become increasingly dangerous, exposing workers to the risk of being trapped or swept away.
“I want residents to take this warning seriously and avoid activities that could expose them to unnecessary danger,” said Governor Barasa.
He also urged farmers to reconsider the crops they plant during the rainy season, encouraging them to grow short-term crops capable of maturing quickly.
For smallholder farmers, such a shift could help protect food supplies and household incomes in the event of prolonged disruption.
Barasa said the county was drawing lessons from the 2023 El Niño rains, which caused widespread disruptions in several parts of the country.
“We learnt a lesson from the experience in 2023 and we want to make sure that we are sufficiently prepared to minimise the effects of the heavy rains,” he said.
County Commissioner Taari similarly urged residents not to wait for disaster to strike before taking action.
“I call upon residents not to wait for the disaster to strike. Take precautions and remain vigilant, monitor weather information and follow safety advisories issued by authorities,” he said.
“For residents living close to rivers, mining areas and other high-risk locations, early evacuation could save lives.”
He stressed that preparedness would have to continue throughout the rainy season.
“Preparedness is not something that happens in one day. It requires continuous monitoring and response at both the county and national government levels,” Taari said.
Residents have also been urged to clear drainage channels around their homes and farms and take advantage of the rains to harvest water.
Across the border in Busia, authorities are similarly strengthening their preparedness as the county braces for possible flooding.
The County Disaster Response Committee has been operationalised and cascaded to the sub-counties, with sub-county disaster response committees activated in Teso North, Teso South, Samia and Bunyala.
The county is also strengthening early-warning and public-awareness systems, using local radio stations, public barazas, posters and talk shows to disseminate information and alert residents about possible risks.
Critical drainage infrastructure is being targeted for rehabilitation ahead of the rains.
“Drainage structures and culverts are being desilted in Busia, Malaba, Bumala, Port Victoria and Funyula to reduce flash flooding,” said County Director for Disaster Management Joel Osinya.
The county is also pre-positioning boats, life-saving equipment, fuel and vehicles to enable emergency teams to respond quickly in areas affected by floods.
Beyond emergency response, Busia is preparing for the possibility of displacement and disruption of food supplies.
The county plans to stockpile food and non-food items for at least 5,000 households for one month at the county warehouse.
County departments are also mainstreaming and strengthening El Niño preparedness and response through supplementary budget allocations.
At the same time, authorities are identifying and mapping evacuation centres in collaboration with the National Government.
At least 20 evacuation centres are targeted in Budalang’i, Samia, Teso North and Teso South, with plans underway to rehabilitate and equip them before the rains intensify.
For both counties, the preparations go beyond emergency meetings and government response plans. The real test will come when rivers begin to rise, drainage systems fill, roads become impassable and families are forced to make decisions about whether to remain in their homes or move to safer ground.
Climate change has made rainfall patterns increasingly difficult to predict, with communities facing prolonged dry spells punctuated by increasingly intense rainfall events.
For rural households whose livelihoods depend heavily on the weather, the consequences can be devastating.
The coming months will therefore test not only the emergency-response systems of Kakamega and Busia but also the ability of communities to act on early warnings before disaster strikes.
As the skies darken over Western Kenya, the message from the two counties is clear: the time to prepare is before the water rises.